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Archive for August, 2006

Taking a loan from 401(k) to invest.

Wednesday, August 30th, 2006

I was thinking about the idea of borrowing a 401k to invest. It made me wonder. Not a lot of people write or talk about borrowing from a 401k to invest. At first, it seemed like a good idea because I am paying myself interest on the money I borrow. Plus, I will have more freedom with the money I borrow from the loan. So I would be able to add more money to my tax deferred account through the interest payments and I would use the funds I borrow to invest in any way I please.

My thinking was that in order to maximize my 401k, I could take out a loan and pay the interest payments which is pretty high. It is prime plus 1 percent, which is about 9 percent. The money I borrow from my 401k would be growing at a guaranteed 9%, but it would be with my money, so there is no actual increase in wealth. The purpose of the loan is to try to put as much money into the 401k as possible. Then I would try to earn money on the loan in a taxable account.

Obviously, this is for people who are maxing out all their tax-deferred accounts such as Roth IRA, IRA, and 401k. There are limitations on the loan, too. The maximum amount someone can borrow from their 401k is 50% or 50,000, whichever is less.
But then after thinking about it for awhile, the idea seemed bad.

Borrowing from your own 401k is a bad idea. The tax on the interest will be paid twice. This is because you will be paying the interest on the loan with after-taxed dollars and a second time when you withdraw your money. So investors are paying more money on the interest because it is used with after taxed dollars. For example,
Borrowing from a tax-sheltered account to invest in a taxable account does not sound very smart. Why would anyone want to lose the valuable tax-shelter vehicle? For young people, they should try to maximize their tax-deferred investments because they have a long time horizon to let that money compound tax free. Tax is a real big drag in a taxable account, which is why people try to put their most tax efficient assets such as stocks in there.

I am still thinking about this idea, though. Anyone have any thoughts about this subject?

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Roth 401k status now permanent

Friday, August 25th, 2006

The Roth 401k was set to expire in 2010 unless congress renewed it. A lot of employers were reluctant to offer the Roth 401k because of its status. It costs a lot of money to set up the plan for their employees. They wanted to make sure that the Roth 401k here to stay before they offered the plan.

President Bush signed the 900 page pension protection act on August 17th, 2006. The act made the Roth 401k permanent now. Hopefully, this will spur more employers to offer the Roth 401k to their employees.

Roth 401k is like a 401k and Roth combined. After-tax money is invested into the Roth 401k instead of pre-tax dollars like a 401k. Employees can choose to invest in the Roth 401k (if provided), 401k, or both. The combined contribution maximum for both the Roth 401k and the 401k is 15,000.
Some of the benefits of the Roth 401k include:

1. No income restriction for contributing to the Roth 401k.
Roth IRA has an AGI limit of 95,000 for single and 150,000 for joint filers.

2. Higher maximum contribution.
Roth IRA’s maximum contribution per year is only 4,000. Roth 401k’s maximum is just like a regular 401k, which is 15,000 for the year of 2006.

Pension protection act will raise the maximum contribution for Roth IRA to 5,000 in 2008. Savers credit for lower income workers have also been made permanent. The new law makes it possible for employers to automatically enroll employees into a 401k plan.

I would like to invest in a Roth 401k, but my employer currently does not offer it. I feel it is more advantageous for low income, young people to invest in Roth IRA or Roth 401k because they will be taxed at a lower rate now and withdraw their money in the future at a higher tax rate.

Tax Efficient Asset Location

Wednesday, August 23rd, 2006

Tax efficient asset location is the putting the most tax inefficient assets in tax-sheltered accounts. Many people do not do this because they have their money spread around in many places. Some people treat different accounts as separate portfolios, but the best thing to do is to treat all the separate accounts as one big account. Others receive inaccurate information about proper asset location. They think putting equities instead of bonds into a tax-deferred account is better because of the higher expected rate of returns on their equities.

The general rule of thumb is to put tax inefficient funds and asset classes such as bonds and REITs into tax-deferred accounts. After that, start putting the more tax efficient asset classes such as stocks into the taxable accounts.

Investors should always put any bonds they have into a tax deferred account instead of a taxable account. Bonds get taxed at ordinary income tax rate so investors have the most to gain and the greatest tax savings by putting bonds in their tax sheltered accounts. This is not a problem if most of a person’s money is in tax-deferred accounts. But if they have some fixed income securities in a taxable account, it would be a good idea to start putting them into their tax-deferred accounts.

It is not optimal to have equities in a tax-deferred account and tax-exempt bonds such as municipal bonds in the taxable account because investors are not fully utilizing the tax-deferred accounts. It is better to hold tax-exempt bonds in a taxable account only after the tax-deferred accounts are filled with taxable bonds.

Equities should be held in a taxable account because of they have lower yields. The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 made it even more favorable to put equities in taxable accounts. Qualified dividends are only taxed at 15 percent instead of regular income tax rate. Another advantage of having equities in a taxable account is the ability to time buys and sells to minimize taxes paid. Investors can write off their losses up to 3,000 a year and carry the excess loss forward indefinitely.

As for short-term trading, I believe it may be better to put equities into tax-deferred accounts because the short term capital gains are going to be taxed at ordinary income tax rate. The disadvantage it that losses cannot be written off like in a taxable account.

Resource:

http://www.tiaa-crefinstitute.org/research/dialogue/docs/85.pdf

http://siepr.stanford.edu/conferences/asset_location/papers_.index.html

I do not like technical analysis

Wednesday, August 16th, 2006

Today was a good day to own stocks. The market has been down going down a lot more than it is going up. All I know is that I cannot predict the market’s short term volatility. I feel it is too random. I just buy stocks with good fundamentals and wait for them to recover. If they do not recover and it is the end of the world, then my portfolio value would not matter anyways. I try to only buy quality companies.

People who think they can predict the market are just fooling themselves. I do believe in the weak form efficient market hypothesis which states that all stock prices fully reflect historical price and volume data.

This is why I do not use technical analysis. I think chartists may be successful in the short run, but are ultimately wasting their time trying to interpret various patterns they see. I think trying to interpret data from a chart is too subjective. Many various patterns will form, but does that even mean anything? With new data coming in all the time, a pattern will be found if they look hard enough. Can the past really predict the future? With so many variables that cause the movement of a security, will something simple rule used in technical analysis work?
I do not believe in momentum rules since I buy stocks when they are down at least 20% off their 52 week high. I like Benjamin Graham’s quote from the Intelligent Investor which says:

“The one principal that applies to nearly all these so-called “technical approaches” is that one should buy because a stock or the market has gone up and one should sell because it has declined. This is the exact opposite of sound business sense everywhere else, and it is most unlikely that it can lead to lasting success in Wall Street. In our own stock-market experience and observation, extending over 50 years, we have not known a single person who has consistently or lastingly made money by thus “following the market.” We do not hesitate to declare that this approach is as fallacious as it is popular.”

I do not like technical analysis because I think it is a waste of time.

Buying Capital One Financial Corp

Monday, August 14th, 2006

Another solid value stock that I am going to buy soon is Capital One Financial Corp. (COF). Capital One has shed 15$ off its price of $86 on July 20th down to its current price of $71.82. The shares fell on July 21 because COF earnings missing analysts estimates.

COF still a very strong company. It has very good ratios compared to industry averages as well as its historical averages.

P/E = 9.67 compared to industry and sector average of 15.8 and 15.3.

Price to Book Ratio(P/B)=1.37 compared to industry and sector average of 2.11 and 2.3.

ROE of 16.56 which is comparable to industry and sector average of 14.28 and 16.32.

COF also has a really low PEG ratio of .8

Finally, COF is 20% below its 52 week high. I feel it is a good opportunity to buy this stock. It may drop some more due to market conditions, but since I do not know what the market is going to do, I am going to buy some Capital One stocks.

My current positions include: Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF), Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), Claires (CLE), Dollar General (DG), Gannett (GCI), Home Depot (HD), Legg Mason (LM), MSC Direct (MSM), Maxim (MXIM), Pentair (PNR), Sky West (SKYW), and Wrigleys (WWY).

I am currently trying to add some financial companies into my portfolio.

IndyMac Bancorp (NDE) looks like a good buy.

Thursday, August 10th, 2006

I am thinking about adding more money into my brokerage account or selling one of my stocks to buy IndyMac Bancorp.  It looks like a real good bargain at this point.  IndyMac Bank is down 19% from its 52-week high. 

The stocks ROA of 1.57% is higher than industry average of 1.3%.  NDE’s ROE is 21% is also a lot higher than the industry average of 10.7%.

IndyMac Bancorp has a p/e of 8.64, p/b of 1.65, p/s of 1.37, and a yield of 4.43% with a payout ratio of 35%.

The recent price drop yesterday of 6% makes this a good opportunity to buy this stock at a very good price.  I feel the best time to buy is when everyone is fearful. 

Dividend Stocks performing well.

Monday, August 7th, 2006

According to an article on USA Today, dividend stocks in the S&P have outperformed stocks that do not pay dividends by 4% in July and by more than 8% year to date.  Dividend payers are up 4.3% while non payers are down 3.3%.  After the peak in May, dividend payers are down 4% compared to the nonpayers that dropped 11%. 

Jeremy Siegel’s research shows that the top 100 highest paying dividend paying stock in the S&P 500 outperformed the index by more than 3% from 1957-2003, returning more than 14% annually. 

Dividend stocks are less volatile than non paying stocks.  Thus, dividend paying stocks hold up better because investors less likely to sell out of fear.  They have a cash flow every three months that will lessen the pain of a decline in the market.  Investors are more likely to hold dividend stocks during a bear market than non payers. 

In 2002, dividend payers declined 10.9% compared to 30.3% for nonpayers.  But in bull markets, they lag behind non payers.  In 2003, dividend payers rose 33.5% compared to the 61.7% of the nonpayers.  I can live with that.  You cannot have the best of both worlds.  You can only expect less volatile stocks to go up less in bull markets and go down less in bear markets. 

Dividends are real. You can spend it or reinvest it.  And with the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (expires 2008, unless renewed), qualified dividends (stocks must be held for 60 days) are only taxed at 15% instead of regular income tax.

I personally, only buy dividend paying stocks in my portfolio.  I want all my equity positions to pay some sort of cash flow for holding them.  And since I buy stocks when they are down, the dividends will help. 

 

Joined AAII.

Friday, August 4th, 2006

I joined American Association of Individual Investor (AAII) for a year for $29.  I wanted to try it out to see if it was worth getting the lifetime membership.  So far, I like the website. 

I think the membership is perfect for people who are starting out.  There is a wealth of information for beginners who invest or want to learn how to invest.  The articles on AAII are well written and provide more depth and detail than most articles I read on other websites.  There seems to be more effort and thought put into writing the articles on AAII. 

I mainly joined for the stock screeners.  I wanted a better customized screener, but AAII does just has a basic one that is of no use to me.  There are many preset screens, many which have had good historical performance.  It was interesting to see that they had a Dreman and Graham screen, which was nice.  The screens are decent and a good source of stock ideas to do further research on. 

Their shadow stock portfolio is very interesting.  It contains micro cap stocks that have real money invested in it.  It has returned an average of 18.9% since inception 1993.

I would recommend joining AAII.  I will probably get the lifetime membership when my current one expires. 

Retailers Stocks did well today.

Thursday, August 3rd, 2006

Stocks in the retailer sector did well today due to favorable sales data in July.  This is good news since some of my retailer stocks had been doing poorly lately.  I held on to them because they were good stocks.  I just had to be patient. 

Dollar General (DG) finally went up .60 or 4.52% after weeks of going down.  I feel this is a solid stock that will have long term potential to go up.  It is just not very popular right now due to eroding gross margins.  The company’s gross margins are down because of consumable goods they are adding to their product line has lower margins. 

Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) went up $3.27 (6.22%).  Abercrombie and Fitch has four branded retail stores under the name of Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie, Hollister and Ruehl.  It is unpopular now due to disappointing same sales data in the past few months.  The share prices have dropped 22% + from its 52-week high (27% if not counting today).  The company has no debt, 412 million in cash, free cash flow of 156 million, ROE of 40%, PEG ratio of .69 and a P/E ratio of 14.63.

Ingersoll-Rand and it’s sector industrial goods has a good day today too.  It went up $1.63 (4.49%) and has gone up 7.46% since I bought it 3 days ago.  I think I am going to sell it soon for a quick profit. 

My portfolio is looking good and I will have some sell candidates soon to lock in my profits.  I was disappointed that my limit order on Skywest(SKYW) did not go through on Monday.  My limit order was for 22.80, which was the low for that day, but my order did not go through.  If it went through, I would have made about 7% + because SKYW has gone up a lot the past few days too.  I sold Skywest last month and was looking to buy it again.

Master Limited Partnership (MLP)/ Publicly Traded Partnerships (PTP)

Wednesday, August 2nd, 2006

Master Limited Partnership (MLP)/ Publicly Traded Partnerships (PTP)

I got interested in MLPs by reading 1st Million by 33’s blog. MLPs are limited partnerships that publicly trade on stock exchanges such as the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ. MLPs are an interesting investment because of their high yields (6-10%) relative to regular stocks. MLPs have outperformed S&P and other indexes over the past 10 years returning an average of 18% a year.

 

Advantages of MLPs

High yields.  Makes it easier for investors to stay in the market when it tanks, especially when they are yielding 8%. 

MLPs do not pay income taxes because they are partnerships, so they pass the earnings on to the unitholders. 


They have cheaper cost of capital because they do not pay taxes like corporations.

Unitholders only pay 10-20% of the distributions.  The rest of the distribution they receive lowers the cost basis of the units (shares) they own.  They pay capital gains taxes on units when they sell their shares.  Investors effectively defer most of their distributions until they sell.

MLPs have low correlation to other asset classes.  MLP may be a good diversifier for portfolios that do not have much in the energy sector.  

Disadvantages
Investors cannot write off their losses on MLPs to offset income because the losses are considered passive losses.  Passive loss can only be used to offset the gain of the same MLP in the future. 


Most MLPs are in energy sector, so it is difficult to stay diversified with a lot of MLPs in a portfolio. 


MLPs have had strong performance in the past 15 years.  Who knows if MLPs can perform this well in the future. 


MLPs performance is partly tied up to interest rates.  25 – 35% of MLPs price movement are related to moves in interest rates. 


MLP general partner takes a bigger chunk of distribution at higher distribution tiers.  (Up to 50% of incremental cash flow. 


Risks include:

Distribution’s growth depend on access to capital markets because MLPs pay out almost all of their cash to unitholders.


Rising interest rates.
 
Poor economy because energy demand is linked to the economy.   Cash flow is more important than P/E ratio because cash flow determines the distribution paid out to unitholders.  Coverage ratio is very important too.  Coverage ratio is the distributable cash flow available/distribution.  The higher the number, the better.  Investors look for numbers higher than 1. 
 
Resource:

http://www.ptpcoalition.org/InformationonPtPs.htm