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Archive for the ‘Website Resources’ Category

Accumulate Regret and Shun Pride

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

I learned that investors should shun pride and accumulate regret instead of the reverse, which is what people normally do.
I’ve been reading The Only Three Questions that Count by Ken Fisher.  Ken is a good writer.  He has written a column on Forbes for over 20 years.  Being the son of the great Philip Fisher couldn’t hurt as well.  He’s CEO of Fisher Investments and is #281 on the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest Americans.  It is one of the most entertaining and educational investment books I have read in awhile.  What makes this book so great is that it challenges conventional wisdom that we all take as fact.

Some examples of false truths that we do not investigate include:

High P/E stocks are riskier.

America has way too much debt.

Stock markets do better in countries with faster growing economies than slow ones.

A tax cut causes more debt, which is bad for stocks.

Big government budget deficits are bad.

Cheaper stocks do better than less cheap stocks.

Ken Fisher teaches his readers how to think for themselves.  Reading Wall Street Journal, Barrons, Bloomberg, blogs or  Forbes will not make you a better investor because all of that information is already discounted in the news.  An investor must be willing to come to their own conclusion and use the 3 questions to uncover something others do not know. Yet most investors (speculators!) gamble instead of research.  They forget their big losers and brag about their winners.  It’s the overall performance that matters in the end.

Read The Three Questions that Count if you want to become a better investor.

By Loi Tran

A Cash Advance Is the Perfect Safety Net

Friday, March 23rd, 2007

A cash advance is the ideal short-term loan. A cash advance is designed this way so the borrower does not have to get a long-term loan. Many times people just need a little extra cash to make it through until her next payday but the last thing they want is to get a loan that will take months or years to pay back. If an individual has enough self-discipline to not borrow more money than they actually need, then they should have the right to get a short-term loan payday cash advance is just that.

A cash advance is easy to qualify for. The repayment of a cash advance is due on the borrower’s next paycheck. Lenders will usually offer two weeks before the loan payment is due. The process is swift and convenient for the borrower. You can actually fill out the online application in five minutes and your approval can only take a few hours. Once you have qualified for a cash advance and then the lender will immediately fund your checking or savings account with a loan amount. You can actually have the money in your hands in less than 48 hours in many cases. The convenience of applying for a cash advance is unbeatable. If you have a computer and an Internet connection, you can take the quickest process available to get a cash advance.

A cash advance can be used for anything the borrower wants and you will often see cash advance companies offer a free loan for the first time borrower. If you find yourself in a situation where you need cash until your next payday, then a cash advance demands your attention.

Becoming a Equity Analyst

Monday, February 26th, 2007

There’s a good article called Becoming a Security Analyst by William A. Hayes. This is one of my main career goals right now.

This is what I got from the article:

Get an MBA, CFA or both.

Network.

Write your own research report.

Get lucky.

There’s no right way to get a security analyst job. It’s a tough world out there.

Keeping track of finances in Excel

Wednesday, July 5th, 2006

I currently use Yodlee to keep track of all of my accounts. Yodlee is an account aggregator that lets a user keep track of all their accounts in one page. It’s a very helpful tool to use because I can see all my bank account, credit cards, and investment accounts all in one page. Some people worry about the security of the site because Yodlee needs all the accounts user name and password log on information to access the accounts. If someone got a hold of the log on information for Yodlee, they may have access to all the other accounts listed on Yodlee. I’m not really worried about identity theft though.

I keep track of my portfolio at finance.yahoo.com. The portfolio tracker is simple and easy to use.

I use an excel spreadsheet to keep track of all my financial data. I downloaded MSN Money Add-In that enables excel to get stock quotes from the internet. I can update the value of my portfolio with the update button. I keep track of all my financial data on an excel spreadsheet. The spreadsheet has a lot of different tabs that are linked together to display my networth.
The tabs include:

Stocks Universe - This tab displays all the stocks that I currently watch. When they get into buying range. There are about 100 stocks. Data for the stocks include, Price/52 week high, latest price, price change, how many shares I should buy for position in my portfolio, and s&p dividend ranking. I update the list once in awhile. I keep a list of a few stocks above that are good candidates for a buy.

Current Holdings - This tab displays all the stocks and mutual funds that are in my portfolio. This tab displays the holding percentage of each position, cost basis, current market value, price/share, shares owned, current gain/loss %, and total gain/loss %,

Trade Records - Shows all the stocks I have bought and sold in the past and dividends received.
The average holding time is displayed and calculated using the days and today function. It displays the gain in working capital, market value/cost basis % difference, and market value/working capital % difference. It shows the cash flow of my portfolio too.

Credit Cards - Displays all the credit cards I have as well as the balances I owe for each card. It shows when each of my balance transfers end. Other data include credit card’s credit limit, the last time I tried to increase the credit limit, minimum payment amount, and the last payment date and amount. I currently pay about $750 a month over 6 cards that have balance transfers on them. I need to repay 2 citibank cards in October, so that will be the time when I will open a few more credit cards. Phone numbers for the credit cards are listed so I can contact them when needed.

Net Worth - Has all of my account balances. The accounts are divided up into different sections. The retirement/tax deferred accounts, taxable accounts, and cash accounts(online savings accounts). This spreadsheet takes data from other tabs. It takes the liabilities I owe from the credit card tab and investments from the current holdings tab. It then computes my net worth and change in networth every month. Below the networth data is my networth goal for the month. The internal rate of return for my portfolio is calculated using the IRR function.

Sit and Go - This tab held my texas holdem record for sit and gos. I stopped playing and took out all my money. I will start playing again if they give me some free money. I’m going to take this tab out soon.

Rules - This sheet displays some investing and trading rules.

Goals - Lists my short term and long term goals. Main one right now is just studying for the CFA.

I still need to change and modify my spreadsheet. It does the job, but I need to make the spreadsheet look nicer and add some more features once I can think of some more.

Global Value Investing Website

Thursday, June 8th, 2006

I came across this Global Value Investing Website that does a great job explaining what value investing is and what value investing is not.

Investors can take their Value Investing Challenge below.


Value Investing Challenge

1.How are investing and speculating different?

2.Which companies are included in an investor’s circle of competence?

3.How is valuation different from screening and ranking?

4.What is the difference between value and growth?

5.What is the difference between value and price?

6.What is distinctive about intrinsic economic value?

7.What constitutes investment risk?

8.What is the optimum size of the margin of safety?

9.Which point in a range of values is the best estimate of value?

10.How are going-concern and resource-conversion values different?

There is a wealth of good information that will benefit investors.

ValuePro.net

Saturday, June 3rd, 2006

I came across this website ValuePro from a book called Streetsmart Guide to Valuing a Stock; The savvy investor’s key to beating the market by Gary Gray, Patrick J. Cusatis, and J. Randall Woolridge. I have not read through the book yet, but it does look interesting.

The ValuePro website calculates a stock using discount cash flow analysis. After getting the baseline intrinsic calculation, users can change inputs such as the profit margin, growth rate or equity risk premium. I think it’s a good tool for investors. As with all tools that calculate intrinsic value of stocks, some inputs will greatly affect the final value of the stock. Investors need to do their due diligence and check to see if all the inputs are correct. Furthermore, the tool will not work well on some highly leveraged stocks such as REITs, financials or portfolio companies such as Berkshire according to the authors of the book.

I also like to use Quicken’s security evaluator as well to check out a stocks intrinsic value.

ValueTool Website

Friday, May 5th, 2006

ValueTool is a website that lets users determine the value of a stock based on 7 different valuation techniques. The 7 different valuation techniques used to value stocks are:

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)
P/E Valuation
Price / Cash Flow
Price / Book Value
Price / Sale

The website shows the calculation of each valuation technique. Then a stock price is displayed for each valuation technique. Users can click on each bar to get a description of the valuation technique and see the calculations done. The site also has the ValueTool top 50 stocks and a blog that has stock ideas.

Here is an example of a valuation on Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF)

Here is another one for American Home Mortgage (AHM)

One thing that I have noticed is that the calculations done on many stocks result in an insanely huge negative or positive valuation numbers on many of the valuation techniques. I have not looked closely to the calculations done, but I would not take those values with a grain of salt. That’s one of the problems with trying to find the intrinsic value of a stock. A small change in one of the inputs can make a huge change in the intrinsic value of the stock.

Investment Tools on the Web

Monday, May 1st, 2006

Morningstar has an article on Investment tools on the web. Some tools include Diamond Hill Intrinsic Value calculator and Joe Greenblatt’s Magic Formula.

Others include a 529 State Tax Deduction Calculator and a Taxable Equivalent Yield Calculator that compares Muni Bond yields with taxable ones.

Some decent stock screens can be found on MSN or Reuters. The MSN deluxe screen is a very powerful screen, but it requires a download. You can screen stocks based on many different parameters not available in other screens. I sometimes use the screener on Scottrade, but that screener is pretty weak. I use it to screen stocks because I can screen based on S&P Dividend ranking.

Best long term stocks

Monday, April 24th, 2006

Jeremy Segel’s latest article talks about the 20 best performing stocks in the S&P 500 from 1957-2005. The best performing stock was Altria (MO) also known as Phillip Morris with average annual returns of 19.80 percent. His advice was general advice that many people have heard before. Buy great stocks at reasonable price and buy stocks that pay dividends because they usually perform better in the long run. Out of the 20 stocks in that list, 19 paid dividends today.

Performance from 1957 to 2005

Return Rank Company Avg. Annual Return Avg. EPS Growth Avg. Dividend Yield Avg. PE Ratio Next Year PE
1 ALTRIA GROUP (MO) 19.80% 14.75% 4.07% 13.13 12.46
2 BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB (BMY) 15.79% 11.59% 2.87% 23.52 18.79
3 ABBOTT LABS (ABT) 15.72% 12.38% 2.25% 21.37 14.96
4 MERCK & CO (MRK) 15.59% 13.15% 2.37% 25.32 14.65
5 COCA-COLA (KO) 15.54% 11.22% 2.81% 27.42 16.67
6 PEPSICO (PEP) 15.41% 11.23% 2.53% 20.42 17.78
7 PFIZER (PFE) 15.30% 12.16% 2.45% 26.19 11.57
8 TOOTSIE ROLL (TR) 15.27% 10.44% 2.44% 16.80 21.18
9 CRANE CO (CR) 15.14% 8.22% 3.62% 13.38 14.63
10 COLGATE PALMOLIVE (CL) 14.94% 9.03% 3.39% 21.60 18.18
11 FORTUNE BRANDS (FO) 14.22% 6.20% 5.31% 12.88 13.34
12 WRIGLEY WILLIAM JR (WWY) 14.12% 8.69% 4.02% 18.34 21.59
13 HEINZ H J (HNZ) 14.11% 8.94% 3.27% 15.40 16.86
14 KROGER COMPANY (KR) 14.09% 6.21% 5.89% 14.95 13.08
15 SCHERING PLOUGH (SGP) 14.02% 7.27% 2.57% 21.30 23.52
16 PROCTER & GAMBLE (PG) 14.00% 9.82% 2.75% 24.28 18.98
17 WYETH (WYE) 13.81% 8.88% 3.32% 21.12 14.36
18 HERSHEY FOODS (HSY) 13.79% 8.23% 3.67% 15.87 17.69
19 ROYAL DUTCH (RD) 13.55% 6.67% 5.24% 12.56 10.36
20 GENERAL MILLS (GIS) 13.39% 8.89% 3.20% 17.53 15.89
  TOP 20 15.48% 9.70% 3.40% 19.17 16.33
  S&P 500 10.73% 6.08% 3.27% 17.45 15.31

I also ran across this old yahoo article within that article called Ben Bernanke’s favorite stock. Ben Bernanke’s only stock is Altria. I guess our recent Fed Chairman knows what he is doing.

If you can only buy 1 stock, what would it be? I think I might buy Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A or BRK.B) or even Altria (MO) if they are reasonably priced.

Savings Calculator

Tuesday, March 21st, 2006

There are many different savings calculators out there. Here’s some that I’ve come across.

This savings calculator on CNN Money’s website pretty good. It lets users enter their money they have in their taxable accounts as well as in their tax-deferred accounts. User can enter in their federal and state tax rate. The results will show how much savings has accumulated over the specified time before and adjusted for inflation.

Bank Rate’s Calculator lets users enter the amount they want to save and how many years they have to save. It then tells the amount a person needs to save a month in order to reach their goal.

I entered in $2,000,000, 21 years, and 9% rate of return. The results show that I need a monthly deposit of $2780 or $91 a day or $640 weekly.

Fool.com also has a lot of different calculators. They have budget, auto, home equity and many other different calculators.

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